News-Letter

Mary Pat Clarke could be Baltimore's next mayor.

The veteran city councilwoman from the 14th District, whose successful opposition to a number of University initiatives in the surrounding community has left an already-tense political climate simmering, has been popping up in speculation over potential candidates for next year's mayoral race.

Should the current incumbent, Mayor Martin O'Malley, be successful in his Maryland gubernatorial bid this November, the currently uncertain political landscape in Baltimore could devolve into a mayoral free-for-all without a clear party favorite.

The increasing likelihood of an O'Malley victory has left the prospect of such a situation looking progressively better. Almost every poll conducted since last year has had the mayor ahead of his opponent, incumbent Gov. Robert Ehrlich, by anywhere from six to 13 percentage points.

Though neither Clarke nor any of her potential opponents would speculate ahead of a conclusion this November, analysts and observers alike have her pinned as a top contender for the post.

"She has a good chance," said Matthew Crenson, chair of the Department of Political Science at Hopkins and an expert on Baltimore City politics.

Clarke declined to speculate on a potential run for mayor other than to say, "It's something I'm not considering, but I would never rule it out."

On whether she's been approached about running next year, Clarke said, "Yes, of course people have talked to me, but I think they've probably talked to everyone on the council."

But she acknowledged that, should her name continue to come up as a top contender, she would begin to seriously consider running.

Clarke, a veteran of city politics who has already turned in one unsuccessful bid for mayor in 1995 and served a term as City Council president, enjoys substantial popularity in her home district as well as a considerable amount of name recognition on a range of city-wide issues -- both of which could work well together to produce a formidable bid to take City Hall.

Such circumstances would be especially likely, Crenson explained, if Baltimore's majority African-American population continues the crippling political habit of splitting its support among several ultimately unsuccessful black candidates ---- a trend that put O'Malley at the top of the ticket in a three-way race for mayor in 1999.

"If there are several black candidates who run, then [Clarke] has a very good chance of winning," Crenson explained

Popular speculation has already named at least two of those possible candidates:

Keiffer Mitchell, Jr., councilman for the 11th district, and Kenneth Harris Sr., councilman for the 4th district, both of whom maintain that they haven't yet given a potential run much thought.

"If ... the black community solidifies behind somebody like Keiffer Mitchell, then [Clarke's] chances go down considerably," Crenson added.

According to a 2006 campaign finance report made available by the Maryland Board of Elections, Mitchell is the only prospective candidate thus far to do any kind of fundraising ahead of a possible mayoral bid next year.

Direct campaign contributions to the Friends of Keiffer Jackson Mitchell, Jr. candidate committee, as well as money donated by Maryland Political Action Committees, totaled over $42,000 since January 2005, compared to only $122.88 raised by Clarke in the same amount of time.

Commenting on the possibility of a run at City Hall next year, Mitchell took the same tact as Clarke: "After the November election," he said. "Let's take one election at a time."

An online poll recently conducted by Bmorenews.com that surveyed participants' choices for potential mayoral candidates in 2007 put Clarke ahead of both Mitchell and Harris with 32 percent of the vote (62 of 192 votes). Though the poll was unscientific, observers see it as nonetheless in line with Clarke's high, city-wide name recognition and her ability to top a split in the African-American vote.

On how likely it seemed that Clarke would actually get into the race, Crenson said, "I have no doubt that if the opportunity presents itself, and it looks like she has a good chance of winning, she'll run."

Clarke has become an increasingly unpopular figure among Hopkins students after a string of battles between the University and the community -- a contentious political back-and-forth that most see as both a series of setbacks to the University as well as a series of victories for a stalwart student foe.

Junior Kaitlin Lee called the possibility that Clarke could end up Baltimore's next mayor "terrible."

Lee, who has been circulating an online petition urging the University to do more to advance student interests in the community and fight Clarke on issues such as parking restrictions and party crackdowns, is a registered voter in the 14th district and a vocal critic of Clarke.

"She doesn't represent me at all," Lee said. "I'm very concerned about [her potential candidacy]."

Sophomore Michelle Brown echoed Lee's frustration, saying she'd become more aware of the conflict after the University's recent controversial decision to abandon plans to move its annual Spring Fair to N. Charles Street, in response to opposition from Clarke and a number of community leaders.

"It was really upsetting to see that Hopkins backed down so easily," she said. "It made me more aware of [Clarke's] influence in the Baltimore community."

Senior Ben Frazer agreed, saying he thought Clarke's resistance to student interests in the community and potential run for mayor next year were related.

"I think she's using the whole anti-Hopkins thing as a platform to run [for mayor]," he said.

Lee said she plans on organizing students to oppose a potential Clarke candidacy, should the councilwoman's name continue to crop up as a potential favorite in next year's race.

"I would probably have voter registration drives," she said, "get people to the polls."

On whether or not Hopkins students could wield an influence in next year's election, Crenson offered a wry analysis.

"Yes," he laughed, "they'd probably bring out her supporters."

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