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Issue date: 10/22/09
Science & Tech

Climate experts call sea level rise inevitable

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These ice caps are primarily responsible for reflecting heat. Scientists say that the melting of these ice caps will cause a snowball effect: More ice melting means less ice to reflect heat, and an increase in heat will cause further warming of oceans, melting of ice and rising waters.

Experts predict that sea levels will rise two meters by the year 2100, two to four meters by 2200 and over four meters by 2300.

Just like the melting of the ice caps, once sea levels start to rise, they are unstoppable. "There [is] simply no way I can see that you could stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions," Stephan Rahmstort, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research Impact, said during his address. "If we go to zero emissions we will roughly stabilize temperatures. They're not going to go down very much, even in a zero emissions world."

Rahmstorf suggests that this stabilization would be the best outcome, so that sea levels would rise at a steady rate instead of accelerating. Ultimately, however, within the next 300 to 1,000 years, the sea levels will rise about seven meters, which will swallow many island nations and low-lying coastal cities around the world.

According to Robert Nicholls of Southampton University, 40 million people live in flood plains, which is 0.6 percent of the global population and five percent - three trillion dollars - of the global wealth in assets such as airports and power plants.

"Sea level rise will also have significant impacts on tidal wetlands, coral, and erosion-prone headlines," Zaitchik said.

Stopping sea level rise is also an important goal, though not one we are likely to reach in the near future as temperatures are certain to increase within the next century.

"Even if we go to two degrees or three degrees we certainly will lose control over our sea level rise because there is basically nothing we can do to stop the sea level from rising once we have caused this warming, unless we manage to cool down the planet," Rahmstort said. "It would actually require extracting the CO2 from the atmosphere, which I don't think is very feasible. At least no known way of doing this on a sufficient scale is known today."

What can we do about something that seems unstoppable? U.N.-led negotiations to replace Kyoto Protocol with a policy that would be tougher and more effective in reducing emissions is a start. As for the next one hundred years, measures such as building dikes around shores, retreating to higher ground or heightening the land may be able to withstand the encroaching waters.
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